Jobless Claims

Last week’s light release schedule suggests that the Federal Reserve may be planning to cut rates this year, as most inflation data align with this expectation. This week, the only notable releases are the minor FOMC Minutes and the U.S. leading economic indicator index. While these indicators came in slightly worse than expected, the results are not significant enough to impact the upcoming rate decision.

U.S. Leading Indicators

The leading index for the economy fell 0.6% in July, the fifth straight monthly decline, the Conference Board said Monday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.4% decline.

FOMC Minutes

“Several” top Federal Reserve officials were ready to cut interest rates in July and most believed a reduction next month is justified in light of slowing inflation and a weakening jobs market, new documents show. “The majority overserved that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting,” the minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting said.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease this week by -0.04% with the current rate at 5.62%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease this week by -0.03% with the current rate at 6.46%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.20% decrease for this week. Current rates at 5.90%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.20% decrease for this week. Current rates at 5.92%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 232,000 compared to the expected claims of 230,000. The prior week landed at 228,000.

What’s Ahead

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation data report is heading up the pack with the PCI Index releasing at the tail end of the week, headed up by Personal Income and Consumer Confidence reports before that. The PCE Index data will be the strongest motivator for a soon-to-be rate cut.