Mortgage Rates

With the upcoming CPI and PPI reports this week, last week still had a number of important data points to consider. First, the non-farm payroll data, helping reveal the situation of pay versus inflation data giving an overall description of the state of the economy in the future.  Among that, the manufacturing data has shown to be contracting the past year, with the first signs of relief this month. Lastly, trade data has shown that the trade deficit has grown bigger than expected with Q1 coming to completion. 

All of these are broader indicators of the state of the economy and the most important data is to come this week, as inflation data will firmly decide when and where rates may be cut in the future. It appears to be becoming increasingly unlikely we will see a rate cut decision by the Federal Reserve in Q2. Many of the Federal Reserve’s Chairman had spoken last week, illuminating a resolve to resist rate cuts until “Inflation was under control.”

Non-farm Payrolls

March jobs report showing incredible strength of the job market in the U.S. with a 50% gap above the numbers expected. A strong job market is a strong economy.

U.S. Trade Balance

The numbers: The U.S. international trade deficit widened 1.9% in February to a seasonally adjusted $68.9 billion, the Commerce Department said Thursday. It is the third straight month with a wider deficit and the largest imbalance since last April. 

ISM Manufacturing

A barometer of business conditions at U.S. manufacturers turned positive in March for the first time in 17 months, in another sign that the industrial side of the economy is on the mend.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.05% with the current rate at 6.06%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by 0.03% with the current rate at 6.82%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a 0.06% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.45%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a 0.05% increase for this week. Current rates at 6.46%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 221,000 compared to the expected claims of 213,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

CPI and PPI data will very much decide whether we will be seeing rate cuts this upcoming quarter, with little in the way of other reports.

As expected from the prior inflation reports with CPI and PPI, the PCE index had also shown the same corollary among its data points, reporting a higher than expected increase for the month of February across all products.

In addition, the Chicago PMI had shown a declining trend of activity among businesses for the 6th week in a row. All this points to that there might be a case for the Federal Reserve to continue holding rates in the next rate decision coming up in the summer of 2024. There has been much speculation that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates at this time; however this is evidence of the contrary.

Consumer Sentiment Reports

The numbers: The final reading of consumer sentiment in March rose to a 32-month high, as Americans expressed more confidence that inflation would ease and reduce the financial strain on households. The second of two readings of the consumer-sentiment survey climbed to 79.4 from an initial 76.5.

Chicago PMI

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, weakened further in March, dropping to 41.4 from 44 in the prior month. This is the fourth straight monthly decline. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 45 reading.

PCI Index

Prices in the U.S. rose again in February based on the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, reinforcing the view that inflation might not slow as much in 2024 as previously believed. The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, the government said Friday. That’s a touch below the 0.4% forecast.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.10% with the current rate at 6.11%.
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing a decrease by -0.08% with the current rate at 6.79%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.07% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.39%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.06% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.41%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 210,000 compared to the expected claims of 214,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

This upcoming week has very little in the way of valuable reporting data. The following after next will contain further inflation data with the release of CPI and PPI reports. The only report that should be noted is the U.S. Trade Balance reports.

While it’s not a set deal, the Federal Reserve does appear to be on track for a June rate cut, and following its two-day policy meeting, the central bank’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee said it will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5% until then. 

Additionally, the government has also avoided another shut down as a series of rushed bills had approved spending for the government by another 1.2 trillion dollars. This is good news for lending markets as the debt ceiling has previously tied up rate decisions in the past.

FOMC Rate Decision

Federal Open Market Committee has stated it will maintain the current interest rate for central banks and will keep its benchmark overnight borrowing rate in a range between 5.25%-5.5%.

Existing Home Sales

The numbers: Home sales rose in February as home buyers snapped up a slew of new listings. Sales activity posted the biggest increase since February 2023. Sales of previously owned homes rose by 9.5% to an annualized rate of 4.38 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index

• 15-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by +0.05% with the current rate at 6.21%
• 30-Yr FRM rates are seeing an increase by +0.13% with the current rate at 6.87%

MND Rate Index

• 30-Yr FHA rates are seeing a -0.20% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.40%
• 30-Yr VA rates are seeing a -0.20% decrease for this week. Current rates at 6.42%

Jobless Claims

Initial Claims were reported to be 210,000 compared to the expected claims of 213,000. The prior week landed at 212,000.

What’s Ahead

As of this week, the only thing to watch out for is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation outside of the CPI and PPI data releases. We will also be seeing initial estimates for the first quarter GDP estimates, gauging the total growth of the economy.